Foresight Playback: Cyclic Models in Foresight Research

Peter Jones Cultural innovation, Innovation, Strategic Foresight

In a series of posts here, I’m continuing to discuss our Strategic Foresight & Innovation research after student graduation. Neal Halvorsen completed his MRP Foresight Playback (Mapping the Future of Industrial Regions by Learning from Historical Cycles of Innovation) after conducting field research in my hometown of Dayton, Ohio. Dayton is almost 500 miles south of Toronto, following the 401 to I-75 South to  Detroit, Toledo, Lima, and then Dayton (a string of cities connected on I-75 to the auto industry). Neal’s MRP on learning from historical cycles of innovation is at: Notably he draws on the mix of cyclic anticipatory models “Kondratieff, Schumpeter, Elliot waves and the Fourth Turning generational cycles are brought together to show how cycles of innovation and decline can be mapped over long periods, adding to the insights that other foresight methodologies can bring to cluster planning.” Uniquely. He integrates these to synthesize their complementary relationships over time, to examine historical patterns into contemporary era, and to suggest this model as a long-horizon planning system for innovation cluster foresight, strategic formation, and investment. Neal’s Medium …

Integrative Design Healthcare Charette

Peter Jones Design for Care, Innovation, Systemic Design

Prof John Marshall, program director for the new Stamps School of Design Integrative Design MDes, invited us to facilitate a multi-stakeholder charrette in December with their students and professors to develop proposals for the Ann Arbor VA Hospital and community. Working with John and the VA’s key stakeholders for innovation and ambulatory care, the Redesign team employed a modified Basadur Simplexity structure to guide the proceedings. The charrette included medical industry professionals, design leads and managers from Guardian Industries, Stryker, U.S. Army veterans, and of course stakeholders from the VA Healthcare System to work in small groups to identify, map out and explore core challenges for proposing focal points for action. The Stamps graduate design students produced excellent footage and photographs to document the session.   Redesign partner Patricia sketched the full-length visual narrative to capture the process, stages, and plenary results from the day’s sessions. The focus of the workshop entailed two significant challenges: How do we develop different ways of understanding what is important to VA patients? How can we go about creating connections with our patients beyond their disease process or treatment?   …

Appetite for Disruption

Peter Jones Human Values, Innovation, Media Ecology

The goal of a startup is no longer just user engagement or viability. A “preference for disruption” is celebrated, without reservation, whether a small or big business. (Only recently were reservations even fussed over – Jill Lepore’s critique of Disruption culture was published the week after this conference talk, June 23.)  She states (without critical analysis of causation): “Ever since “The Innovator’s Dilemma,” everyone is either disrupting or being disrupted. There are disruption consultants, disruption conferences, and disruption seminars. This fall, the University of Southern California is opening a new program: “The degree is in disruption,” the university announced. “Disrupt or be disrupted,” the venture capitalist Josh Linkner warns in a new book.” As an ethnographer of innovation practices, I have always appreciated Christensen and his contribution to theories of change. I also observe the trend signified by Lepore, the increasing meta-narrative of “disruption is good.” Disruptive innovation is not always beneficial to a society or even markets.  In Design for Care I fret over the preference for disruption in current business thinking and its unjustified hubris in the healthcare …

Reframing innovation value – From products to service strategies

Peter Jones Innovation, Service Design, Strategic Innovation

Shifting (Successfully) to a Knowledge-based Economy The fundamental basis of the knowledge-based economy has shifted from manufacturing (product-based) economies to production based on services and service management. The advanced economies of the US, Europe and Japan have already shifted largely to service provision. As this period has overlapped with the offloading of mass manufacturing to developing economies, the attendant disruption of skills, work, educational models, and management has been seen in fits and starts. Unlike the huge shift from the industrial age to the information age (that disrupted the 1970’s and led to the boom in the 1980’s), the service economy shift is highly configurable, and the disruption is not so obvious. Our companies and suppliers are now producing mixes of products, managed services, information technology, media, and self-service systems, a mix of offers and value that constantly changes. We in the advanced economies are also leading and producing a cross-sectoral shift from producing products (the embodiment of industrialization) to co-creating services (the embodiment of information as promised in the knowledge economy). However, we have not yet perfected our processes, …